On Friday afternoon,as March came to a close, I had the opportunity to participate in a discussion with agents from around the US about the state of the housing market. A few points I brought up (the expanded notes will be in my newsletter out later this week, if you’re not on the list, you can join by clicking here)
When I last participated in this roundtable discussion, my level of optimism about the market was somewhat higher, however overall I would say I currently trend towards cautiously balanced.
This has been quite the roller coaster over the last few years, and last year, roughly around this time, was when we first started to see a shift ahead of the interest rate increases (9 so far…), the increased mortgage rates absolutely impacted affordability, for some it was a massive blow that caused them to pause…but in other respects for some, it was a different type of opportunity (irony is that it was around this time last year that the shift began, although with reporting being a mostly lagging indicator, it took about 3-6 weeks before we saw it reflected in the data)
People have had to adjust their perspective to this current rate environment, and that those historic lows are a thing of yesteryear for the moment. Timing the market , by the way, rarely works out. Waiting for the so called inevitable crash, also , may not be the best strategy. In an environment like this, more than most, things are NEEDS driven, more so than WANT
The psychological impact of inflation, banking crises, layoffs can also not be understated.
BUT all of that said, as quarterly reports are hot off the proverbial presses , a few things to report- in the most recent #OlshanReport , for the week ending 4/2 there were 34 contracts above $4M signed in #manhattan. Two more than the previous week, condos continue to outsell coops and there were EIGHT townhouses in the mix, the best townhouse week since the last week of August 2021, when 9 contracts above $4M were signed ! The top two deals this week were townhouse sales !
Overall, Q1 2023 is seemingly ahead of an average quarter pre pandemic (you may recall I’m often suggesting we think of the last normal pre pandemic year as the measuring stick…)
In NYC, the submarkets have never been more different. There are properties in great condition that sell quickly, in multiple offers, and there are those that languish. There is still a disconnect between sellers holding to numbers from a market that is long gone, and buyers who may think there’s a fire sale and aggressively bid low. This is a market where the transactions will occur ,but it ill require more creativity and patience to get to the closing table. I have been advising my buyers for a while, to reconsider those properties that seem to languish (to see some more of that commentary , some of those insights were quoted across various media- and you can find the link in my bio), and for my sellers, as we are preparing to bring some things on this spring, honing in on price, and condition is super critical.
Keeping the pulse of a quickly shifting market requires a commitment to education, collaboration, understanding and interpreting market conditions – micro, macro and global and providing you our clients the accurate context as you make your decisions, driven by data. This is the week where there’s a media onslaught of all the quarterly reports, remember that statistics really need to be
If you have specific questions about NYC or beyond, or want a custom analysis for your situation as a seller or buyer, here at your service 📧 💬
